Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats are very worried about the upcoming midterms with good reason. Eric Holder and Barack Obama failed to win enough state legislature races to stop the GOP from having the upper hand in the redistricting process.
That alone should get the GOP the few seats needed, with Pelosi’s majority slim, to send Nancy packing. But more ominous for Nancy and the Dems is the enthusiasm gap.
Pundits and pollsters point to it every year to explain why the party in power at the White House loses power in Congress in the midterms. Others say as divided as America is we still like divided government because that limits the changes one side can do. Either way it’s bad news for Nancy.
So when Pelosi saw a new poll from Democracy Corps that showed enthusiasm among Republicans to vote in the midterm elections is higher than the Democrats by double digits she must have been terrified.
From Democracy Corps:
“The Trump loyalists who strongly approve of him are two-thirds of those who identify as, “Republican.”
And they are joined by the Trump aligned to form a breathtaking, three quarters of the party in the electoral battleground states and districts that will decide who leads the country.
“The survey also finds that the critical bloc of non-Trump conservatives and moderates is only a quarter of the battleground electorate — compared to 30 percent in our national poll last month. The non-Trump conservatives are a healthy 16 percent of Republicans, but there are just fewer moderates (9 percent) in the battleground.
“Democrats win 5 percent of the former and 13 per-cent of the latter, but a greater risk to Republican consolidation are the “Biden Republicans” and their choosing to abstain or vote third party. After all, these races may be decided by only a few points.
“We were also surprised by how much Donald Trump’s loyalist party is totally consolidated at this early point in its 2022 voting and how engaged it is.
“Yes, they have pulled back from histor-ic presidential year levels: the percent scoring 10, the highest level of interest in the election, has fallen from 84 to 68 percent. But Democrats’ engagement fell from 85 percent to 57 per-cent. Republicans are following their political theater much more closely than are Democrats — producing an 11-point gap.
“Neither is showing the level of interest of the presidential election in 2019 and 2020, but they are higher than a comparable point in 2018, suggesting the era of high turnout elections is not over.
And with such high early engagement of Republicans and white working class voters in this survey, it means the era of Donald Trump shaping the electorate is not over either.
Our new poll in the 2022 battleground show’s Trump’s loyalists and aligned voters are 75% of the GOP, already consolidated and engaged in support of Trump’s unfinished fight. @StanGreenberg @BillKristol @SykesCharlie @Timodc @AccountableGOP @RonBrownsteinhttps://t.co/jFJEMNDO6p
— Democracy Corps (@DemCorps) May 14, 2021
Our founder @StanGreenberg just published an op-ed in The American Prospect on why modeling the electorate is critical to understanding the challenge we face, and how America can fix the polls.
To Save America, Look at America as It Is https://t.co/ICldSjTCyQ
— Democracy Corps (@DemCorps) January 20, 2021