Larry Elder Surges To Lead In Potential Recall Election As New Poll Dooms Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom just got some terrible news heading into his recall election. Larry Elder, the conservative media figure, however, got fantastic news from the same poll that doomed Newsom.

A new poll shows Newsom in serious trouble with the electorate evenly split whether to recall the embattled Dem Governor or leave him in office. And worse for Newsom, among likely voters, he is in the toilet. Turnout will be key and GOP voters are very motivated while Dems voters could care less. Bad signs for Newsom.

“The governor’s in jeopardy among those most likely to be voting,” Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, said. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times survey shows conservative talk radio host Larry Elder as the current front-runner among the dozens of candidates running to replace Newsom if the voters send Gavin packing.

From Fox News:

Forty-seven percent of likely California voters questioned in the poll said they supported recalling Newsom, with 50% opposed.

But among the wide pool of all registered voters, support for recalling the governor drops to 36%, with 51% supporting keeping Newsom in office.

The poll indicates how crucial turnout will be in the Sept. 14 election in a state where registered Democrats greatly outnumber registered Republicans, but Republicans appear to be more motivated to cast ballots in the recall contest. Although Republicans only account for roughly a quarter of all registered voters in California, the poll indicated they made up a third of those most likely to vote in the recall election.

Voters will be asked two questions on the Newsom recall ballots, which will be mailed to California voters starting in the middle of August. The first question is whether the governor should be removed from office. If more than 50% support removing Newsom, the second question offers a list of candidates running to replace the governor.

DiCamillo doomed Nessom saying the “republicans were much more likely to say they’d be turning out” for three key reasons:

“Republicans are expressing much greater interest in voting in the recall.”

“There’s greater complacency among Democratic voters. Nearly all of them think Newsom is going to survive this, and I think that’s holding back some of their voters from thinking it’s important to vote. Republicans are much more confident that they think they can turn the governor from office.”

‘The ballot itself kind of lends itself to greater Republican participation,” because Newsom is only Dem on the ticket.