Joe Biden’s campaign just released some internal numbers are they are claiming Trump will need to get over 60% of the Election day vote in key swing states if he is to win again.
They base these numbers on the early vote and absentee/vote by mail ballots. They are not actually votes counted but ballots returned by party registration where states allow for it and an educated guess of which of their voters have turned out using other modeling systems.
Everyone expected this – Biden’s voters voted early and Trump voters would surge on Election Day and the GOP would use the early in-person vote to whittle away at the Dems lead. Which is exactly what happened.
Biden’s campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon said of waiting for all mail-in ballots to be counted, “Under no scenario will Donald Trump be declared a victor on election night.”
“With our advantage coming into North Carolina, we believe that Trump is going to need 62% of the votes on Election Day in order to win,” O’Malley Dillon said.
According to the Biden campaign, in North Carolina Trump needs 62% of the Election Day vote to win that state.
In Wisconsin Trump would need 61% of the ED vote to win.
In Arizona Trump needs 60% of ED voting to win the state.
Alex Roarty from McClatchy reported:
“O’Malley Dillon presser part preparation for tomorrow, part argument their GOTV strategy has been vindicated
Says no way Trump can be declared victory tomorrow night
Says VBM rejections rates have been “incredibly small”
Says it’s not impossible, but the pre-Election Day vote makes it hard for Trump to catch up.”
Who knows if these numbers are accurate, but here are some early vote stats that the Biden campaign is sharing. O'Malley-Dillon is projecting confidence. pic.twitter.com/VE2agZqBTF
— 1️⃣ day until Nove〽️ber 3? (@snowmanomics) November 2, 2020
"With our advantage coming into North Carolina . . . we believe that Trump is going to need 62% of the votes on Election Day in order to win," O'Malley Dillon says.
— Dave Catanese (@davecatanese) November 2, 2020