Jon Ralston, CEO of The Nevada Independent, is an expert on Nevada voting and what he is reporting is terrible news for the Dem Party. He said after looking at the early vote totals:
“Numbers tell the story, and it is not a good one for the Dems: Clark firewall is low, rural landslide is deep and Washoe is about even. Dem statewide lead is 1.5 percent, which is a very small margin for error. Not like recent cycles at all.”
Clark County is the Dem stronghold in the state. They need to run up the numbers here, specifically with the early vote, to build a ‘firewall’ that can stop the GOP from winning when the election day voting comes in.
In elections past the firewall the Dems built up in the Las Vegas area has been barely enough to keep the Dems in power in the state. But according to Ralston, the Dems are falling far short this year.
THE EARLY VOTING BLOG IS UPDATED!
Numbers tell the story, and it is not a good one for the Dems:
Clark firewall is low, rural landslide is deep and Washoe is about even.
Dem statewide lead is 1.5 percent, which is a very small margin for error.
Not like recent cycles at all. https://t.co/ollDqNLXUS
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 3, 2022
He wrote:
“Twelve days of early voting in the books, and I think it’s safe to say now after years of watching these numbers/trends: The Dems are in trouble in Nevada. The reason is simple:
“Mail is way down in Clark County from 2020, and the numbers are just not big enough to boost the Clark firewall after the GOP wins in-person early voting every day.
“Large (relatively speaking) in-person turnouts on Wednesday in both urban counties, which helped the GOP hold its own amid a still-lagging mail turnout.
“Clark was a combined plus 1,000 ballots for the Dems, who lost a couple of hundred ballots in Washoe.
“It’s far from over, but consider:
“The Dems now have a 1.5 percent lead statewide, which is half of what their reg lead is in the state. It’s about 7,000 ballots out of 476,000 reported.
“That is a thin margin for error, and if the mail doesn’t pour in, the rurals will continue to play an outsize role. The math is inexorable, folks:
“Clark Dem firewall: 24,000
“Rural GOP lead: 18,400
“That’s only a 5,600-ballot difference.
“The Clark firewall is only 7.4 percent, more than 2 points under the Dem reg lead there. It was 47,000 at the end of early voting in 2018.”
Once again, Rs win in-person vote in Clark. Slightly larger turnout, usual percentage, so more ballots. https://t.co/urJC470jcQ
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 3, 2022
UPDATE: I had fun with extrapolations trying to see what the overall turnout might be this year in Nevada.
If you like numbers, you will like this update.
I still think 60% makes sense, but too early to know w/dearth of mail, Election Day mystery.https://t.co/7TRQUrtH05 pic.twitter.com/lzhWybVR2t
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 3, 2022
